Freight Shipments Sinking Globally, UFreight Shipments Sinking Globally, US Joins the Parade: Global Recession Starts S Joins the Parade: Global Recession Starts

  • When the December 2018 Cass Shipments Index was negative for the first time in 24 months, we dismissed the decline as reflective of a tough comparison. When January 2019 was also negative, we again made rationalizations. Then February was down -2.1% and we said, “While we are still not ready to turn completely negative in our outlook, we do think it is prudent to become more alert to each additional incoming data point on freight flow volume, and are more cautious today than we have been since we began predicting the recovery of the U.S. industrial economy and the rebirth of the U.S. consumer economy in the third quarter of 2016.”
  • When March was down -1.0%, we warned that we were preparing to ‘change tack’ in our economic outlook.
  • With April down -3.2%, we see material and growing downside risk to the economic outlook. We acknowledge that: all of these still relatively small negative percentages are against extremely tough comparisons; the two-year stacked increase was 6.6% for April; and the Cass Shipments Index has gone negative before without being followed by a negative GDP. We also submit that at a minimum, business expansion plans should be moderated or have contingency plans for economic contraction included.
  • The initial Q1 ’19 GDP report of 3.2% suggests the economy is growing faster than is reflected in the Cass Shipments Index. Our devolvement of GDP explains why the apparent disconnect is not as significant as it first appears.
  • The weakness in spot market pricing for many transportation services, especially trucking, is consistent with the negative Cass Shipments Index and, along with airfreight and railroad volume data, heightens our concerns about the economy and the risk of ongoing trade policy disputes.
AAC Cargo & International Shipping Services
Dubai, Unites Arab Emirates
Tel: +971 4 8880718
Email: info@aaccargo.ae
Website:
https://aaccargo.ae
https://aaccargo.com/
http://expresscargo.ae/
Shipping & Moving Household & cars from Dubai to USA, Africa & Europe, we are international movers specialized in worldwide logistics from Dubai.
Shipping from dubai, International movers, Shipping to Africa, Shipping to Europe, International Relocation, Ocean Freight, Sea shipping, Air Cargo, air shipping, Shipping Company, Cargo Company, Dubai Shipping Company freight forwarding, Logistics company, Express Cargo, Shipping to South America, Shipping to Russia

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Air Freight Logistics Vietnam 2019

This takes place on 19 and 20 September in Vietnam for the fourth time where local and foreign enterprises will gather. It offers networking opportunities with key decision makers and the opportunity to listen to international and local professionals from logistics companies, airlines, airports, banks and the insurance sector. AAC Cargo & International Shipping Services Dubai, Unites Arab Emirates Tel: +971 4 8880718 Email:  info@aaccargo.ae Website: https://aaccargo.ae https://aaccargo.com/ http://expresscargo.ae/ Shipping & Moving Household & cars from Dubai to USA, Africa & Europe, we are international movers specialized in worldwide logistics from Dubai. Shipping from dubai, International movers, Shipping to Africa, Shipping to Europe, International Relocation, Ocean Freight, Sea shipping, Air Cargo, air shipping, Shipping Company, Cargo Company, Dubai Shipping Company freight forwarding, Logistics company, Express Cargo, Shipping to South A...
Read more

Legal overview of China’s international air freight industry

T he Montreal Convention is an international air carriage convention introduced by the International Civil Aviation Organization in 1999, which took effect in China (and Macau) on 31 July 2005, automatically superceding its predecessor the Warsaw Convention. The Hong Kong SAR government also became a signatory on 15 December 2006. The convention governs only international carriage in which of the points of both departure and destination, with or without a break in carriage or a trans-shipment, are situated either within the territories of two party states, or within the territory of a single party state if there is an agreed stopping place within the territory of another state, even if that state is not a party state. Under Article 142(2) of the PRC General Principles of Civil Law, any inconsistencies between international treaties to which China is a party and the Chinese civil law should be resolved in favour of the international treaties. The Montreal Conventio...
Read more

UAE’s Etihad takes sole ownership of secure logistics firm

Etihad Airways says it has acquired the shares held by Armaguard Linfox Group (Australia) in Armaguard Valuables Management Etihad Airways has announced that it acquired the shares held by Armaguard Linfox Group (Australia) in Abu Dhabi-based joint venture Armaguard Valuables Management (AVM). The deal makes Etihad the sole shareholder of the company which has been renamed Etihad Secure Logistics Services. In the six years since it began operations, AVM said it has successfully grown from a start-up to become a major player in the UAE secure logistics and valuables management market. Gary Allen, Linfox Armaguard Group CEO, said: “The Armaguard Group is concentrating on continuing to strengthen the existing businesses in Australia and New Zealand while enhancing our services across South East Asia, and as such will withdraw from the UAE. “Etihad and Armaguard have shared a long history of working together to provide the best solutions for our customers. We will continue as a stro...
Read more